Wednesday 21 February 2018

KIJHL Playoff Predictions with February Power Rankings

The final Power Rankings of the season.

It's also where I remove emotion and just use numbers to predict the KIJHL finals and winner. I did a post back in 2014 which showed that the best predictors of the league champion - 1st overall and 1st in power rankings - if a team had both they were very likely to win the KIJHL championship.

With that in mind, here is the Power Rankings for the seasons end. (Keep in mind, the difference is now related to standing in the league, a + means the team is performing better than their record suggests, and - means the opposite)


You will notice that the Creston Valley Thunder Cats (a team I picked to be last in the Eddie Mountain Division) are currently #1 in the Power Rankings and have a difference of +4, this means the team is performing better than their record suggests. The Grand Forks Border Bruins are also performing better than their record suggests.

The Summerland Steam, Kamloops Storm and Princeton Posse are all -3, they have some room for growth.

PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

I already joined a discussion in the Twitterverse saying that I would like to see a Kelowna Chiefs vs Kimberley Dynamiters in the finals, that's my heart.

Removing all emotion, the Creston Valley Thunder Cats are the top power ranked team, so that puts them in the final against the Osoyoos Coyotes (the top Power Ranked team in the Okanagan Shuswap Conference).

In a weird way, if/when Creston Valley and Kimberley meet in the Eddie Mountain Division Finals, that is an "unofficial" battle of the beasts - top power ranked vs top standings.

But let's go through and pick a Conference and Division winner:

Division Winners: Creston Valley Thunder Cats, Nelson Leafs, Osoyoos Coyotes, Revelstoke Grizzlies
Conference Winners: Creston Valley Thunder Cats, Osoyoos Coyotes
League Champs: Creston Valley Thunder Cats

But let's also look at some teams that may surprise:
Kelowna Chiefs They are 7th in the standings and 4th in power rankings, which means they have been playing better and could make some noise.
Beaver Valley Nitehawks Can you really call the Nitehawks a dark horse team? Well, this year we can since they were 3rd in their division. They are also power ranked the 2nd best in their division.
Kimberley Dynamiters as a dark horse? It's a stretch. As noted above, the Creston Valley Thunder Cats are the #1 power ranked team, and the Nitro's #2 power ranked team and #1 in the standings, they are the most likely team to stop Creston from their triple winnings.

Disclaimer
Now, these are just predictions using stats, looking at the patterns teams have built during the regular season. The playoffs are different season, and stats don't include one major factor: human effect. Anything can legitimately happen.

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