Thursday 15 January 2015

KIJHL 5-on-5 stats and effectiveness & dependency on special teams

With only a couple weeks left in the season, I thought it may be helpful to break down how teams perform on 5on5, on the PP, and on the PK. The following is a lengthy post but looks at the following:
  1. 5on5 Differential
  2. Offensive PP, or Defensively weak PP
  3. Offensive strength on the PK
  4. Offensive dependency on PP, PK or 5on5
  5. Defensive dependency on PP, PK or 5on5
Each section header is bolded and numbered, so if there is a part that is more interesting to you, scroll down to it.


1. 5 on 5 Differential

While we rely on the goal differential of the total goals to help see which teams are offensively or defensively strong. But I have long wondered if the difference is due to their special teams being efficient or weak. So I separated out the special team goals from the total and noticed a couple of interesting trends.

TEAM DIFF 5on5 Diff
100 Mile House Wranglers -15 -2
Beaver Valley Nitehawks 33 12
Castlegar Rebels 12 25
Chase Heat 5 -3
Columbia Valley Rockies -79 -50
Creston Valley Thunder Cats 6 7
Fernie Ghostriders 65 49
Golden Rockets -23 -16
Grand Forks Border Bruins -105 -72
Kamloops Storm 44 32
Kelowna Chiefs -20 -16
Kimberley Dynamiters 40 13
Nelson Leafs 48 22
North Okanagan Knights -100 -77
Osoyoos Coyotes 98 82
Princeton Posse -1 5
Revelstoke Grizzlies -18 -25
Sicamous Eagles -11 2
Spokane Braves -7 -11
Summerland Steam 28 23

2. Offensively strong PP, or defensively weak PP

I then took interest in the ratio of PPGF against SHGA. This would suggest that teams that have a low ratio, struggle defensively on the PP. The higher the ratio, the more potent the PP and (maybe) defensively strong. Think of this as the number of PPG scored for each 1 SHGA.

TEAM PPG/SHGA
Summerland Steam 31.0
Revelstoke Grizzlies 23.0
Beaver Valley Nitehawks 20.0
Spokane Braves 19.5
Sicamous Eagles 17.0
Nelson Leafs 16.0
Chase Heat 14.3
Osoyoos Coyotes 14.3
Kamloops Storm 14.0
Creston Valley Thunder Cats 13.5
Princeton Posse 8.7
100 Mile House Wranglers 7.4
Kimberley Dynamiters 7.0
Kelowna Chiefs 6.6
Golden Rockets 6.0
Fernie Ghostriders 4.9
Castlegar Rebels 4.0
North Okanagan Knights 3.4
Grand Forks Border Bruins 2.3
Columbia Valley Rockies 1.8

3. Offensive strength of the PK unit

Let's try it the other way. PPGA/SHGF. The smaller the ratio, the more of an offensive threat the PK unit is, the larger the weaker the PK unit is offensively. Again, think of this as the # of PPGA per 1 SHGF.

TEAM PPGA/SHGF
Kimberley Dynamiters 1.9
Beaver Valley Nitehawks 3.1
Golden Rockets 3.3
Osoyoos Coyotes 4.4
Creston Valley Thunder Cats 4.7
Fernie Ghostriders 4.8
Nelson Leafs 4.8
Summerland Steam 6.0
Sicamous Eagles 6.8
Chase Heat 9.0
Columbia Valley Rockies 11.0
Kelowna Chiefs 11.7
Spokane Braves 12.0
Castlegar Rebels 12.3
Princeton Posse 15.5
Grand Forks Border Bruins 22.5
100 Mile House Wranglers 23.5
Kamloops Storm 28.0
Revelstoke Grizzlies 38.0
North Okanagan Knights 41.0

4. Offensive Dependency in 5on5, PP or PK

Sorted by % of goals scored 5on5, this shows percentage wise which teams rely more on 5on5, PP or even PK for their offensive out put.

TEAM 5GF PPGF SHGF
Sicamous Eagles 82.8% 13.3% 3.9%
Castlegar Rebels 80.6% 17.5% 1.9%
Grand Forks Border Bruins 80.4% 17.6% 2.0%
Fernie Ghostriders 76.4% 21.4% 2.2%
Princeton Posse 76.3% 22.0% 1.7%
Golden Rockets 74.5% 17.0% 8.5%
Columbia Valley Rockies 73.9% 22.5% 3.6%
Osoyoos Coyotes 73.8% 22.5% 3.7%
Summerland Steam 73.3% 23.0% 3.7%
Creston Valley Thunder Cats 73.2% 21.3% 5.5%
Kelowna Chiefs 69.5% 28.0% 2.5%
Kamloops Storm 68.4% 30.9% 0.7%
100 Mile House Wranglers 68.3% 30.1% 1.6%
Beaver Valley Nitehawks 68.2% 26.5% 5.3%
Kimberley Dynamiters 68.1% 25.8% 6.1%
North Okanagan Knights 67.1% 31.6% 1.3%
Chase Heat 66.9% 30.3% 2.8%
Nelson Leafs 66.5% 30.4% 3.2%
Spokane Braves 66.4% 31.2% 2.4%
Revelstoke Grizzlies 58.8% 40.4% 0.9%

5. Defensive Dependency on 5on5, PP, or PK

This looks at the % of goals that are let in on the PK, PP and 5on5. Sorted by 5on5.

TEAM 5GA PPGA SHGA
Kimberley Dynamiters 79.7% 15.4% 4.9%
Beaver Valley Nitehawks 77.1% 21.2% 1.7%
Fernie Ghostriders 76.9% 16.2% 6.8%
Nelson Leafs 75.5% 21.8% 2.7%
Sicamous Eagles 74.8% 24.5% 0.7%
Grand Forks Border Bruins 74.4% 21.7% 3.9%
Golden Rockets 73.8% 23.8% 2.4%
North Okanagan Knights 72.7% 23.3% 4.0%
Chase Heat 71.5% 26.3% 2.2%
Princeton Posse 71.4% 26.1% 2.5%
Spokane Braves 71.2% 27.3% 1.5%
Creston Valley Thunder Cats 71.1% 27.3% 1.7%
Summerland Steam 71.0% 28.0% 0.9%
Kelowna Chiefs 71.0% 25.4% 3.6%
Castlegar Rebels 70.3% 25.0% 4.7%
Revelstoke Grizzlies 69.7% 28.8% 1.5%
Columbia Valley Rockies 69.5% 23.2% 7.4%
Kamloops Storm 66.3% 30.4% 3.3%
Osoyoos Coyotes 63.4% 33.3% 3.2%
100 Mile House Wranglers 62.3% 34.1% 3.6%

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